Q3 2025 - Market Update
There once was a man out of options. Broke and desperate, he devised an unusual plan—one based on a creative (but flawed) theory of invisibility.
His steps were simple:
Wake up
Rub lemon juice all over his face
Take a Polaroid selfie to “confirm” that lemon juice made him invisible
Rob a bank in broad daylight, staring directly into the security cameras
Rob a second bank
Celebrate his “genius”
He was promptly arrested. His face—fully visible—was all over the security footage.
This real event from Pittsburgh in 1995 became the inspiration for the Dunning-Kruger Effect, a model that illustrates how people with low expertise often dramatically overestimate their abilities. The famous chart on page 3 visually maps the journey from the Peak of “Mount Stupid” to the Valley of Despair, then up the Slope of Enlightenment toward the Plateau of Sustainability.
So, what does this have to do with markets?
The Lens We Use Matters
Recently, during a conversation with a friend who was feeling particularly pessimistic about the world, I heard familiar themes:
Concerns over Chinese dominance
Frustration with monetary policy
Worry about global conflict
A general sense of doom
We hear versions of this often—from clients, colleagues, and everyday investors. Our brains are wired to focus on negative information, and modern media amplifies this.
Compounding matters, the current government shutdown has limited access to the usual flow of economic data, making everything feel even more uncertain.
But sometimes, when data is scarce, the best thing we can do is:
Zoom out, and
Let the facts—not our fears—shape our view
Becoming a “Possibilist”
As Swedish physician Hans Rosling wrote:
“Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but not to their own facts.”
Despite the pessimism we often feel, the world has made — and continues to make — extraordinary progress. Not just in economics, but in the overall human condition.
Let’s look at the data.
Life Expectancy Has More Than Doubled
Chart 1 (page 4) shows life expectancy in the United States since 1876.
In 1876, the average life expectancy was 39 years
Today, it is around 80 years
Life expectancy is a powerful measure because it reflects improvements in:
Nutrition
Medicine
Education
Safety
Even more remarkable: in just the last 20 years, life expectancy has increased another 5 years.
Extreme Poverty Has Plummeted Worldwide
Chart 2 (page 5) tracks the percentage of the world’s population living on less than $3 per day.
Around the year 2000, nearly 20% of humanity lived in extreme poverty
Today, that number is closer to 3%
In 1980, it was close to 40%
If you’re older than 25, you’ve lived through the largest decline in global poverty in recorded history — much of it occurring in China, India, and sub-Saharan Africa.
Child Mortality Has Fallen Dramatically
Chart 3 (page 6) depicts child mortality (deaths before age 5 per 1,000 live births) across 194 countries.
In 1800: 422 out of 1,000 children died before age 5
Today: 23 out of 1,000
This stunning change reflects the arrival of sanitation improvements, modern medicine, vaccines, antibiotics, and global public-health progress.
Every day, tens of thousands of children who would have died in the mid-20th century now survive and go on to live full lives.
The Big Picture
Ladies and gentlemen, we are living in the safest, healthiest, and most prosperous era in human history.
We live longer
We have fewer life-threatening illnesses
Child mortality has collapsed
Extreme poverty has fallen to record lows
Global literacy and education have soared
Quality of life continues to improve
Are there challenges? Absolutely.
Do we make policy mistakes? Yes.
Does everyone benefit equally? Not yet.
But despite the daily noise, the long-term trajectory of humanity is one of progress, innovation, and improved well-being.
Sometimes the most important thing we can do is take a breath, zoom out, and appreciate how far we’ve come.
We remain at your service and watching closely.
Daken J. Vanderburg, CFA
Chief Investment Officer
MassMutual Wealth Management